Next time everything will be different. Then the SPD could forge a government with the greens and the left, because party leader sigmar gabriel had prepared them for it long ago. Or the greens are seeking a coalition with the union because they don't want to be stuck with the SPD for the rest of their political lives with no prospect of government participation. 2017 this could be. In 2013, the sensation obviously failed to materialize.
The draughts between the union and the greens are not as hot as between the CDU, the CSU and the SPD, according to negotiators in berlin over the weekend. A failure of the exploratory talks with the SPD on monday and a yes to a black-green coalition on tuesday – despite all the newfound understanding and some surprising sympathy in the CDU/CSU for the greens – is hard to imagine.
And then finance minister wolfgang schauble (CDU) reports in from afar washington and simply says this sentence: "i believe that we will have a new government in mid november – at least." He expects it to happen much faster than many thought.
SPD party conference in mid-november
Just in mid november – pretty much from 14. By 16. Next month – is the SPD party conference. Because the delegates there elect the party leadership, it would be of inestimable advantage for gabriel and co if by then there were not only the will to negotiate, the yes of the SPD convention next sunday and a negotiated coalition agreement, but also the approval of the 470 delegates.000 members in the planned survey.
Were the negotiations on a rough coalition held in the week after the 20. October, the CDU, CSU and SPD still had 24 days to get everything sorted out – including the SPD's member vote. No problem, say union politicians, but they didn't want to say so loudly – to avoid the impression that the negotiations were a walk in the park.
They only argue that the experts in both parties were able to work out the rough lines in the shortest possible time. The ditches are by no means unbridgeable. SPD secretary general andrea nahles would have made the minimum wage a condition barely a day before the decisive round of exploratory talks, if a compromise were not already in sight.
Minimum wage yes, but not 8.50 euros
Which could be: the SPD gets a legal entry into the minimum wage, but not everywhere at 8.50 euros. And all further decisions would be made by the union's favored wage commission of employers and employees. The SPD's demand for limiting loan labor and work contracts: has already been announced by merkel. Tax increases: can't be done by the union because of its election promise. Now not. But maybe later.
Topic of care allowance: the "spiegel" writes, the SPD backs away from its demand for rapid abolition of "herdpramie and propose to the union to let the federal states decide for themselves, with the help of an opening clause, whether they want to pay out the benefit or not. Then the CSU in bavaria was able to keep the care allowance. CSU leader horst seehofer already wanted the black-yellow coalition to fail because of a no to up to 150 euros per month for parents who do not send their child to a daycare center.
Perhaps the car toll for foreigners demanded by the bavarian head of government will still be the grosser batzen. Neither the SPD nor the CDU want it. Seehofer is considered stubborn, but very flexible when it comes to power.
In 24 days for the first time to black-green? That looked more difficult. The greens are meeting for a party conference the very next weekend, so – if you believed in schauble's timeline – they had to have a second one right after the first one. They, too, were likely to have a decision of this magnitude approved by the rank and file.
The intersection between the union and the greens is small: a few points on energy policy. The list of differences, on the other hand, is long: tax policy, social and family policy, spousal splitting, childcare allowance, rustic exports. 24 days seems too short a time for the revolution of bringing two such different parties together.